Seasonal changes are a golden opportunity to improve your margins. Many restaurants update their menus but forget to recalculate what this means for their food costs. This way they miss opportunities or lose money unnoticed on new dishes.
Why recalculating seasonal changes is crucial
When seasons change, ingredient prices shift dramatically. Asparagus costs €8 per kilo in May, €25 in August. Pumpkin is dirt cheap in October, expensive in March. These fluctuations can cause your food cost to rise or fall by 10-15 percentage points.
⚠️ Watch out:
Many restaurants just copy the old menu price and hope for the best. That's gambling with your profit.
Step 1: Create a seasonal overview of your ingredients
Start with your main ingredients per season. Make a list of what becomes cheaper and more expensive:
- Spring: Asparagus, strawberries, lamb chops cheaper
- Summer: Tomatoes, zucchini, basil cheaper
- Fall: Pumpkin, mushrooms, game cheaper
- Winter: Brussels sprouts, leeks, stewing meat cheaper
💡 Example - Pumpkin risotto in October:
Fall menu ingredients:
- Pumpkin: €2.50/kg (was €6/kg in summer)
- Risotto rice: €3.20/kg
- Broth: €0.80/liter
- Parmesan: €18/kg
Cost per portion: €3.20 (was €5.10 in summer)
Step 2: Calculate the new food cost percentages
For each new dish you calculate: Food cost % = (Ingredient costs / Selling price excl. VAT) × 100
Check if you stay within the 28-35% range. If not, you need to adjust the price.
💡 Pumpkin risotto calculation:
Selling price €18.50 incl. VAT = €16.97 excl. VAT
Food cost: (€3.20 / €16.97) × 100 = 18.9%
Great margin! You could even sell it cheaper than competitors.
Step 3: Adjust prices strategically
Seasonal dishes with low food cost you can price aggressively to attract customers. Dishes that become more expensive, you price up or remove from the menu.
- Low food cost (under 25%): Price competitively, use as a draw
- Normal food cost (25-35%): Maintain standard margin
- High food cost (above 35%): Raise price or adjust the dish
💡 Example - Winter menu strategy:
Game stew (food cost 23%) → €19.50 instead of €22
Grilled salmon (food cost 38%) → €26.50 instead of €24
This way you attract customers with the stew and make good money on the salmon.
Use tools to make it easy
Manual calculations take a lot of time. An app like KitchenNmbrs automatically calculates your new food cost when you update ingredient prices. You immediately see which dishes are still profitable and which need adjusting.
You can save and compare different seasonal menus. Perfect for planning your spring or fall menu.
How do you calculate seasonal changes? (step by step)
Gather current ingredient prices
Check with your suppliers what seasonal ingredients cost now. Note the difference from last season. Some products can be 50-200% more or less expensive.
Calculate cost per new dish
Add up all ingredients for one portion. Don't forget garnishes, sauces and oil. Divide by your desired food cost percentage (e.g. 30%) to find your minimum selling price.
Compare with competitors and decide
Check what similar dishes cost at competitors. Can you sell cheaper? Perfect for marketing. Too expensive? Adjust the recipe or choose different ingredients.
✨ Pro tip
Make your seasonal change an event. 'New fall menu' gets more attention than quietly adjusting prices. Guests happily pay for 'new' and 'seasonal'.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I adjust my seasonal prices?
At least 4 times a year with each seasonal change. But check your main ingredients monthly - prices can spike suddenly due to weather or demand.
What if a seasonal dish becomes too expensive to sell?
Adjust the recipe (use cheaper ingredients), combine with cheaper side dishes, or remove it temporarily from the menu. Better than running at a loss.
Can I estimate seasonal prices in advance?
Mostly yes. Asparagus is always expensive after June, pumpkin cheap in October. But extreme weather can make prices unpredictable - that's why you should check regularly.
How do I communicate price changes to guests?
Be honest about seasonality. 'Fresh local asparagus' justifies a higher price. Guests usually understand seasonal variation.
Do I have to overhaul my entire menu at once?
No, do it gradually. Replace 3-4 dishes first with seasonal alternatives. That way you can test what works before making big changes.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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