Seasonal F&B profitability calculations can prevent devastating winter losses that crush many catering businesses. Purchase prices jump 20-40% in colder months while fixed costs spread across fewer events. Most venues calculate with annual averages and wonder why they're bleeding money from November through March.
Why seasons affect your profitability
Your F&B profitability gets hit by three seasonal factors that often strike simultaneously:
- Purchase prices: Fresh products cost 20-40% more in winter
- Staffing levels: Fixed costs divided across fewer events
- Competition: More suppliers competing for fewer customers
⚠️ Watch out:
Many entrepreneurs calculate their profitability using annual average purchase prices. But in January you often pay 30% more for vegetables than in August, while your selling price stays the same.
Calculate your seasonal food cost
Your food cost changes per season due to fluctuating purchase prices. You need to track this separately:
💡 Example seasonal food cost:
Buffet for 50 people at €35.00 excl. VAT:
- Summer months (June-August): €12.00 per person = 34% food cost
- Winter months (December-February): €16.80 per person = 48% food cost
- In-between seasons: €14.00 per person = 40% food cost
Difference: 14 percentage points between summer and winter!
Create a seasonal table for your main ingredients:
- Fresh vegetables and fruit (biggest fluctuations)
- Fish and seafood (season-dependent)
- Meat (more stable, but also varies)
- Dairy and bread (least fluctuations)
Account for seasonal staffing costs
Your fixed staffing costs spread across fewer events in the low season. This dramatically increases your costs per event:
💡 Example staffing costs:
Fixed kitchen team: €8,000 per month
- High season: 20 events = €400 per event
- Low season: 8 events = €1,000 per event
Difference: €600 per event in fixed staffing costs!
Calculate separately for both seasons:
- Fixed costs per month (kitchen, office, manager)
- Average number of events per month per season
- Fixed costs per event = monthly costs / number of events
Determine your seasonal margin per event
Combine your food cost and staffing costs to calculate your actual margin per season. From tracking this across dozens of restaurants, the difference can make or break your annual results:
💡 Example margin calculation:
Event 50 people at €35.00 = €1,750 revenue excl. VAT
Summer months:
- Food cost: €600 (34%)
- Fixed staffing costs: €400
- Variable staffing costs: €350
- Other costs: €200
Total costs: €1,550 = Margin €200 (11%)
Winter months:
- Food cost: €840 (48%)
- Fixed staffing costs: €1,000
- Variable staffing costs: €350
- Other costs: €200
Total costs: €2,390 = Loss €640 (-37%)
Adjust your pricing strategy per season
With these insights, you can adjust your prices seasonally:
- Winter surcharge: Increase prices by 15-25% in low season
- Summer discount: Offer small discount to maintain volume
- Minimum order value: Increase in winter to cover fixed costs
⚠️ Watch out:
Communicate seasonal prices transparently to customers. "Due to seasonal purchase price fluctuations, we apply a surcharge from November through March."
Monitor your figures digitally
Manually tracking seasonal cost prices takes a lot of time. A system like KitchenNmbrs helps you to:
- Track purchase prices per season
- Automatically calculate food cost per period
- Compare profitability by month
- Calculate price adjustments directly
How do you calculate seasonal profitability? (step by step)
Collect purchase prices per season
Record the prices of your main ingredients for summer (June-August), winter (December-February), and in-between seasons. Focus on fresh products that fluctuate the most. Ask your suppliers for seasonal indications for the coming year.
Calculate food cost per season
Run through your standard menu with the seasonal prices. Divide the total ingredient costs by your selling price excluding VAT and multiply by 100 for the percentage. Note the difference between highest and lowest food cost.
Distribute fixed costs across seasonal volume
Add up your monthly fixed costs (staff, rent, insurance). Divide this by the average number of events per month in that season. In the low season, fixed costs are spread across fewer events, causing costs per event to rise.
Determine your seasonal margin
Subtract all costs (food, fixed staff, variable staff, other) from your revenue per event. Compare the margin between seasons. If you're running losses in the low season, calculate what price increase is needed to break even.
✨ Pro tip
Track your top 3 seasonal ingredients weekly from October through April and recalculate margins immediately if costs jump more than 8%. This prevents you from unknowingly running loss-making events for weeks.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Was this article helpful?
Frequently asked questions
How much can I increase my prices in the low season?
A surcharge of 15-25% in winter months is standard in catering. Communicate this transparently as a seasonal surcharge due to higher purchase prices and lower occupancy.
Do I need to create separate menus for each season?
You don't have to. Work with a base menu and seasonal surcharges. Mention on your quote: "Prices apply to the current season, seasonal surcharges apply from November through March."
How often should I adjust my seasonal prices?
Check your main ingredient prices monthly. Adjust your rates if food cost differs more than 3-5 percentage points from your target. Make major adjustments at seasonal changes.
What if customers leave due to higher winter prices?
Explain that fresh quality ingredients are more expensive in winter. Offer alternatives: menus with more seasonal products or smaller arrangements. Running losses isn't an option.
Can I offset seasonal fluctuations with inventory?
Only for shelf-stable products. You can't store fresh ingredients for months. Focus on smart menu composition with more seasonal products instead of building inventory.
How do I calculate the impact of seasons on my annual revenue?
Multiply your average events per season by your average margin per event per season. Add up all seasons for your total annual result. This gives a more realistic picture than annual averages.
Should I use different profit margins for summer versus winter events?
Absolutely. Target higher margins in winter to compensate for increased costs and lower volume. Many caterers aim for 15-20% margin in summer and 25-30% in winter to maintain annual profitability.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
Calculate events and catering down to the cent
Group arrangements, buffets and events are complex. KitchenNmbrs calculates total food cost per person, per course, per event. Start free.
Start free trial →