Nearly 60% of restaurants fail to track profit variations across different service volumes, leaving owners blind to their actual break-even points. Calculating scenarios helps you prepare for busy times, but also for quiet periods. By calculating in advance what quiet, normal, and busy mean for your profit, you can make better decisions about staffing, purchasing, and menu pricing.
Why scenario planning is crucial
Every restaurant owner knows it: one evening you're fully booked, the next evening you barely reach 20 covers. Without calculating scenarios, you don't know if you're still making a profit on quiet evenings or if you're actually losing money.
⚠️ Note:
Many entrepreneurs only calculate with average occupancy. That's why they don't know what happens if it's 30% quieter or busier than normal.
Define the three scenarios
Start by determining your three scenarios based on number of covers per evening:
- Quiet: 70% of your normal occupancy
- Normal: Your average occupancy
- Busy: 130% of your normal occupancy (maximum capacity)
💡 Example:
Restaurant with 60 covers normal occupancy:
- Quiet: 42 covers (70%)
- Normal: 60 covers (100%)
- Busy: 78 covers (130%)
Variable vs. fixed costs per scenario
Now calculate what your costs and revenues are for each scenario. Important: distinguish between fixed and variable costs.
Variable costs (scale with number of guests):
- Food cost (ingredients)
- Beverage costs
- Packaging materials
- Extra staff during busy times
Fixed costs (stay the same):
- Rent
- Insurance
- Base staff
- Energy (mostly)
Calculation per scenario
For each scenario, calculate: Revenue - Variable costs - Fixed costs = Profit
💡 Example calculation:
Average bill: €35 excl. VAT, food cost 30%
Quiet scenario (42 covers):
- Revenue: 42 × €35 = €1,470
- Variable costs: €1,470 × 35% = €515
- Fixed costs: €800 per evening
- Profit: €1,470 - €515 - €800 = €155
Profit margin: €155 / €1,470 = 10.5%
💡 Normal scenario (60 covers):
- Revenue: 60 × €35 = €2,100
- Variable costs: €2,100 × 35% = €735
- Fixed costs: €800 per evening
- Profit: €2,100 - €735 - €800 = €565
Profit margin: €565 / €2,100 = 26.9%
💡 Busy scenario (78 covers):
- Revenue: 78 × €35 = €2,730
- Variable costs: €2,730 × 38% = €1,037 (extra staff)
- Fixed costs: €800 per evening
- Profit: €2,730 - €1,037 - €800 = €893
Profit margin: €893 / €2,730 = 32.7%
Determine break-even point
With this calculation you also see your break-even point: the number of covers where you break even. This is the kind of thing you only learn after closing your first month at a loss—every cover below this number literally costs you money.
Break-even formula: Fixed costs / (Average bill × (1 - Variable costs %))
💡 Break-even calculation:
€800 / (€35 × 0.65) = €800 / €22.75 = 35 covers
Below 35 covers you make a loss, above that you make a profit.
Decisions per scenario
With these figures you can make targeted choices:
During quiet periods:
- Schedule fewer staff
- Run special promotions to attract more guests
- Promote delivery extra
- Consider closing on very quiet days
During busy times:
- Schedule extra staff
- Increase inventory
- Better spread reservations
- Push premium menu for higher average bill
⚠️ Note:
Don't forget that during busy times your variable costs can increase due to extra staff, but also due to more waste and stress in the kitchen.
Calculate monthly impact
Also calculate what different scenarios mean over a whole month. If you normally run 20 days normal, 8 days quiet, and 2 days busy:
💡 Monthly impact:
- 20 × €565 (normal) = €11,300
- 8 × €155 (quiet) = €1,240
- 2 × €893 (busy) = €1,786
Total monthly profit: €14,326
This helps with creating realistic budgets and planning investments.
How do you calculate scenarios? (step by step)
Determine your three occupancy scenarios
Take your average occupancy as the normal scenario. Quiet is 70% of that, busy is 130%. Calculate how many covers this means per evening.
Split your costs into fixed and variable
Fixed costs stay the same (rent, base staff). Variable costs scale with number of guests (food cost, extra staff during busy times).
Calculate profit per scenario
For each scenario: revenue minus variable costs minus fixed costs = profit. Note that during busy times your variable cost percentage can increase due to extra staff.
✨ Pro tip
Calculate your break-even point for each day of the week over the next 4 weeks, then post these numbers where your team can see them. You'll be amazed how quickly staff efficiency improves when they know exactly how many covers you need to stay profitable.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How do I know what my fixed costs per evening are?
Divide your monthly fixed costs by the number of days you're open. So rent, insurance, base staff divided by, for example, 26 opening days per month.
Why do my variable costs increase during busy times?
During busy times you often need extra staff, more waste can occur due to stress, and you use more energy. That's why the variable cost percentage increases from, for example, 35% to 38%.
What if my break-even point is too high?
Then your fixed costs are too high or your margin too low. You can lower fixed costs, increase your average bill, or reduce your variable costs (especially food cost).
Should I create different scenarios for lunch and dinner?
Yes, if you serve lunch and dinner with different prices and occupancy. Then create 6 scenarios: quiet/normal/busy for both lunch and dinner.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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