Seasonal dishes can make or break your profit. A pumpkin soup that performs fantastically in October can generate complaints in December because pumpkin quality deteriorates. By tracking return percentages and margins per seasonal dish, you prevent losing money on items that no longer perform well.
Why seasonal dishes are risky for your margin
Seasonal dishes carry a double risk. First, ingredient quality changes throughout the season. An asparagus soup that's perfect in May can taste bitter in June because asparagus becomes woody. Second, many kitchens keep offering the same dish while costs rise due to scarcity.
⚠️ Watch out:
A return costs you not just the ingredients, but also labor time, a new portion, and often a complimentary dessert as compensation. One return can cost €15-25.
How to measure return percentages per seasonal dish
Start by tracking three numbers per seasonal dish: portions sold, returns, and reason for return. Many kitchens forget to record this, but it provides crucial insight into which dishes are causing problems.
💡 Example tracking October:
Pumpkin soup with roasted pumpkin seeds:
- Sold: 120 portions
- Returns: 3 portions (2.5%)
- Reason: 2x too salty, 1x served cold
Return percentage of 2.5% is acceptable (below 3%).
Also note the reason for each return. Is it taste, temperature, presentation, or portion size? This helps you distinguish between quality issues with the ingredient and execution problems in the kitchen.
Link return data to margin changes
Don't just measure returns, but also how your margin changes throughout the season. Ingredients become more expensive as they go out of season, while quality often declines.
💡 Example margin progression:
Asparagus soup April-June:
- April: €4.20 cost, 28% food cost, 0.8% returns
- May: €4.80 cost, 32% food cost, 1.2% returns
- June: €6.20 cost, 41% food cost, 4.1% returns
In June you're losing money on this dish.
Calculate the total impact by factoring in both higher cost of goods and return costs. Total impact = (Higher food cost × portions sold) + (Return percentage × €20 average return cost)
Signals that a seasonal dish should stop
There are clear signals for when a seasonal dish costs more than it brings in. Use these thresholds to objectively decide when to discontinue a dish.
- Food cost above 38%: Too expensive for the selling price
- Return percentage above 4%: Quality no longer acceptable
- Sales drop 30% in 2 weeks: Guests notice the quality decline
- Negative reviews about taste: Reputation damage looming
⚠️ Watch out:
Don't abruptly stop popular seasonal dishes. Communicate to guests that the season has ended and announce a replacement.
Digital tracking vs. manual registration
Manual registration in a notebook works, but takes a lot of time when analyzing. You have to add up and calculate all figures weekly. Digital systems like KitchenNmbrs can automatically show trends and alert you when return percentages or food cost get too high.
The advantage of digital tracking is that you can quickly compare between seasons. Maybe last year you stopped the asparagus soup too late. This year you'll see immediately when the numbers deteriorate.
How do you effectively track seasonal dishes? (step by step)
Set up tracking system per seasonal dish
Create a list of all seasonal dishes and note from day 1: portions sold, number of returns, reason for return, and current purchase price of main ingredients. Update weekly.
Calculate food cost and return percentage weekly
Divide returns by portions sold for return percentage. Calculate food cost with current purchase prices. Put both figures in a graph to see trends.
Set stop thresholds and communicate
Determine in advance at what food cost (e.g., 38%) and return percentage (e.g., 4%) you'll stop offering the dish. Prepare a replacement dish and communicate the switch to guests.
✨ Pro tip
Take photos of seasonal dishes throughout the entire season. Guests often notice quality differences before you do, and photos help you objectively assess when presentation declines.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What is an acceptable return percentage for seasonal dishes?
Below 3% is good, between 3-4% is acceptable but requires attention, above 4% is too much and costs you money. Measure this per week, not per month.
How often should I recalculate food cost for seasonal dishes?
At least weekly, because seasonal ingredients can rise in price quickly. For critical ingredients like asparagus or oysters, check daily.
Should I raise the selling price if ingredients become more expensive?
You can, but guests often won't accept this for seasonal dishes. Better to stop when the margin gets too low and switch to a replacement dish.
How do I prevent stopping a seasonal dish too late?
Set thresholds for food cost and return percentage in advance. Automatic alerts in an app like KitchenNmbrs help you decide objectively.
What does an average return really cost?
Between €15-25: making a new portion (€8-12), labor time (€3-5), often a complimentary dessert as compensation (€4-8). Plus reputation damage that's hard to measure.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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