Seasonal dishes make your menu dynamic, but also make it harder to set an average spending per guest target. You can't rely on fixed prices when you serve different dishes in summer than in winter. In this article, you'll learn how to calculate a realistic target that accounts for seasonal changes and fluctuating ingredient prices.
Why seasonal dishes affect your spending target
When your menu changes with the seasons, your costs and selling prices vary throughout the year. Asparagus costs €8/kg in May, €24/kg in December. These fluctuations make it difficult to set one fixed target for your average bill.
⚠️ Note:
Never calculate using average prices across the whole year. You'll lose sight of what's actually happening with your margins per season.
Calculate your base average spending without seasonal dishes
Start with your fixed menu — the dishes you serve year-round. These form your foundation.
💡 Example base calculation:
Restaurant with fixed menu:
- Appetizer average: €12.50
- Main course average: €24.00
- Dessert average: €8.50
- Drinks per guest: €15.00
Base average: €60.00 per guest
This €60 is your starting point. You'll apply seasonal variations to it.
Analyze your seasonal dishes per period
Divide your year into 3-4 periods and see what's different per period:
- Spring (March-May): Asparagus, young vegetables, lamb
- Summer (June-August): Summer vegetables, fruit, fish, terrace effect
- Fall (September-November): Game, mushrooms, pumpkin
- Winter (December-February): Comfort food, more expensive meat, fewer guests
💡 Example seasonal analysis:
Spring menu additions:
- Asparagus menu: €32.00 (vs. €24.00 average main course)
- 20% of guests choose asparagus
- Added value per guest: (€32 - €24) × 0.20 = €1.60
Spring target: €60.00 + €1.60 = €61.60
Calculate with seasonal popularity
Not everyone chooses seasonal dishes. Analyze your sales figures from last year to see what percentage of your guests opt for seasonal options.
- Conservative guests: 60-70% choose familiar dishes
- Adventurous guests: 30-40% choose seasonal specials
- Seasonal enthusiasts: 10-20% come specifically for seasonal dishes
Compensate for cost price fluctuations
Seasonal ingredients are more expensive, but your food cost should remain the same. Calculate what you need to charge minimum for seasonal dishes.
💡 Example cost price calculation:
Asparagus dish in May:
- Ingredient costs: €11.20
- Desired food cost: 30%
- Minimum price excl. VAT: €11.20 ÷ 0.30 = €37.33
- Selling price incl. VAT: €37.33 × 1.09 = €40.69
Menu price: €40.50
Set targets per season
Combine all factors into season-specific targets:
- Base target: Your fixed menu average
- Seasonal bonus: Added price × seasonal dish popularity
- Volume effect: More/fewer guests per season
- Drink effect: Terrace, hot drinks, seasonal beverages
💡 Example complete seasonal targets:
Bistro with seasonal menu:
- Base (all year): €58.00
- Spring: €62.00 (asparagus, more wine)
- Summer: €65.00 (terrace effect, more drinks)
- Fall: €61.00 (game, slightly more expensive)
- Winter: €59.00 (comfort, less volume)
⚠️ Note:
Update your targets each season based on actual sales figures. Seasons differ year to year and your menu evolves.
How do you calculate seasonal spending targets? (step by step)
Determine your base average spending
Calculate the average spending of your fixed menu (dishes available year-round). Add appetizer, main course, dessert and drinks, then divide by the number of guests.
Analyze seasonal dishes per period
Divide your year into seasons and list your special dishes per season. Calculate the cost price and determine the selling price with your desired food cost percentage.
Determine popularity of seasonal dishes
Analyze from last year what percentage of your guests chose seasonal specials. Use this to calculate the impact on your average spending.
Calculate seasonal targets
Add the seasonal bonus to your base average (added price of seasonal dish × popularity percentage). Adjust for volume effects and seasonal drinks.
Monitor and adjust
Check monthly whether your targets are realistic. Adjust based on actual sales figures and ingredient prices that may fluctuate.
✨ Pro tip
Keep a seasonal calendar with ingredient prices from last year. This way you can better predict when your menu becomes more expensive and adjust your targets in time.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Do I need to set a separate target for each seasonal dish?
No, work with an average per season. Too much detail becomes unmanageable. Focus on the 2-3 most popular seasonal dishes and calculate your added value based on those.
What if ingredient prices rise during the season?
Build a buffer of 5-10% into your seasonal targets. If asparagus becomes more expensive than expected, you can adjust your menu price mid-season or replace the dish.
How do I handle seasons that perform poorly?
Evaluate after each season: were your targets too high, were the dishes unpopular, or did external factors play a role? Adjust your targets for next year based on actual figures.
Should I include seasonal drinks in my calculation?
Yes, definitely. Mulled wine in winter, summer cocktails on the terrace — this significantly affects your average spending. Calculate with 10-20% more drink sales in summer months.
Can I track my seasonal targets automatically?
With an app like KitchenNmbrs you can adjust your menu per season and automatically see what this does to your average spending and food cost per dish.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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