Weather can dramatically swing your annual P&L - a soggy summer destroys terrace revenue while an unusually warm winter kills soup sales. Most operators underestimate this variable until they've lived through their first weather-beaten year.
Collect historical data per season
Start by analyzing your revenue figures from the past 2-3 years, linked to weather data. Check which months consistently performed better or worse due to weather conditions.
💡 Example:
Restaurant with terrace - summer 2023 revenue analysis:
- June (lots of rain): €45,000 (-18% vs normal)
- July (dry and warm): €68,000 (+12% vs normal)
- August (changeable): €52,000 (-6% vs normal)
Weather impact summer: -€8,000 vs. average weather
Use weather data from KNMI to identify patterns. Pay special attention to extreme weeks - they reveal your true vulnerability.
Calculate the impact per weather type on your revenue
Create categories of weather conditions and calculate the average revenue deviation per type. This gives you concrete percentages to work with. It's the kind of thing you only learn after closing your first month at a loss - weather isn't just background noise, it's a major P&L driver.
- Sunny and dry: +8% to +15% revenue (terrace, ice cream, salads)
- Light rain: -5% to -10% revenue (less foot traffic)
- Heavy rain/storm: -20% to -40% revenue (people stay home)
- Extreme cold: -15% to -25% revenue (except for soup/warm dishes)
⚠️ Note:
Weather impact varies enormously by business type. A beach shack loses 60% revenue in rain, a hotel restaurant maybe only 5%.
Run scenarios for your annual budget
Create three scenarios for the coming year: optimistic (lots of nice weather), realistic (average Dutch weather) and pessimistic (lots of bad weather).
💡 Example annual budget:
Base revenue without weather impact: €400,000
- Optimistic scenario: +6% = €424,000
- Realistic scenario: +1% = €404,000
- Pessimistic scenario: -8% = €368,000
Difference between best and worst case: €56,000
Build weather buffers into your P&L
Reserve a percentage of your profit as a 'weather buffer' for bad periods. Standard practice runs 2-5% of annual revenue, depending on your weather vulnerability.
Also plan variable costs that move with the weather. Bad weather means fewer staff needed, but maybe higher heating costs.
Measure and adjust monthly
Track each month how weather affected your revenue versus your forecast. This makes your model increasingly accurate over time.
💡 Practical tip:
Note your revenue figures immediately on extreme weather days and what was different. After a year you'll have a golden database.
How do you calculate weather impact on your P&L? (step by step)
Collect 2-3 years of revenue data per month
Download your cash register data and organize it in a monthly overview. Look up parallel weather data via KNMI.nl for the same period.
Categorize weather types and calculate revenue impact
Create groups (sunny, rain, storm, cold) and calculate average revenue deviation per type. Use this as the basis for your scenarios.
Build three scenarios into your annual budget
Run optimistic (+X%), realistic (0%) and pessimistic (-X%) scenarios. Plan financial buffers for the worst-case scenario.
✨ Pro tip
Track your weather-to-revenue correlation for exactly 90 days during peak season. You'll spot patterns that most operators miss, like how even overcast skies drop terrace sales by 12%.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much of my revenue can I lose due to bad weather?
This depends on your business type. Terraces can lose 20-40% in storms, restaurants without terraces usually 5-15%. Beach shacks and ice cream shops are most vulnerable.
Should I send staff home in bad weather?
Plan flexible schedules during bad weather periods. Keep a core team and send extra staff home if it stays quiet. This saves labor costs.
Which months are most unpredictable weather-wise?
April and October are often changeable. Plan conservative budgets in these months and keep extra buffers for staffing.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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