A new seasonal menu often costs more than you think. Many entrepreneurs only calculate main ingredients but forget seasonal fluctuations, minimum orders and inventory risks. In this article you'll learn step-by-step how to calculate the actual procurement costs for three months.
Why a seasonal menu turns out more expensive than expected
With a new seasonal menu it's not just about ingredient costs. You're dealing with:
- Seasonal price fluctuations (summer fruit is expensive in winter)
- Minimum order quantities from new suppliers
- Inventory risk (what if a dish doesn't catch on?)
- Startup waste (team needs to learn new recipes)
⚠️ Heads up:
Many entrepreneurs calculate with summer prices for ingredients they'll be buying in winter. Asparagus costs €18/kg in December instead of €8/kg in May.
The 4 cost components of a seasonal menu
1. Direct ingredient costs
The cost of all ingredients for your new dishes, based on seasonal prices.
2. Minimum order costs
New suppliers often have minimum orders. You buy more than you need.
3. Inventory risk buffer
Not every new dish will be a hit. Budget an extra 10-15% for ingredients you might not sell through.
4. Startup costs
Extra waste because your team is learning new recipes. First two weeks often 20% more waste.
💡 Example: Fall bistro menu (3 months)
New dishes: pumpkin soup, wild boar, apple tart. Expected sales: 150 portions/week per dish.
- Direct ingredients (12 weeks): €4,680
- Minimum orders (surplus): €780
- Inventory risk buffer (12%): €655
- Startup costs (2 weeks extra): €390
Total procurement costs: €6,505
Estimating seasonal prices correctly
The biggest mistake: calculating with current prices when you'll be buying in 2 months. Check these sources for seasonal prices:
- Your supplier: Ask for price forecasts for the coming months
- Wholesale price lists: Often they have seasonal tables
- Last year: Check your own invoices from the same period
Rule of thumb: exotic vegetables and fruit are 40-80% more expensive outside their season. Basic ingredients (onion, carrot, potato) fluctuate less (10-25%).
💡 Example: Seasonal difference asparagus
Dutch asparagus for a spring menu:
- May (peak season): €8.50/kg
- April (early season): €14.00/kg
- June (late season): €12.00/kg
- December (imported): €22.00/kg
For 200 portions at 150g you need 30kg. Difference: €255 (May) vs €660 (December).
Inventory risk and minimum orders
With a new seasonal menu you face two risks:
Minimum order quantities: New suppliers often want minimum orders of 5-10kg. If you only need 2kg for a test, you pay for 8kg you might not use.
Flop dishes: Not every new dish will be popular. Budget 10-15% for ingredients you might not sell through because guests don't order the dish.
⚠️ Heads up:
Exotic ingredients often have short shelf lives. If a dish flops, you can't use them for other dishes. Budget 20-25% buffer instead of 10-15% here.
Including startup costs
The first two weeks with a new menu, more goes to waste than usual:
- Kitchen team learns new recipes, makes mistakes
- Portion sizes aren't dialed in yet
- Mise-en-place planning isn't right yet
Common startup costs: 15-25% extra waste in the first 10-14 days. Include this in your total procurement budget.
Calculation in KitchenNmbrs
With KitchenNmbrs you calculate seasonal budgets by:
- Creating recipes with seasonal prices per ingredient
- Entering expected sales numbers per week
- Adding buffer percentages for risks
The app automatically calculates your total procurement needs for the entire period, including buffers.
How do you calculate seasonal menu procurement costs? (step by step)
Make a list of all new ingredients
Write down all ingredients you need for your new seasonal dishes. Note per ingredient the quantity per portion and expected sales per week. Also include garnishes, sauces and spices.
Check seasonal prices with suppliers
Ask your suppliers for price forecasts for the coming 3 months. Also check your own invoices from last year for the same period. Calculate with the highest price you expect, not current prices.
Calculate direct ingredient costs for 12 weeks
Multiply quantity per portion × expected sales per week × 12 weeks × seasonal price per kg. Add up all ingredients for your base procurement costs.
Add minimum order costs
Check which suppliers have minimum order quantities. Calculate the difference between what you need and what you must order minimum. Add these 'surplus costs' to your budget.
Add inventory risk buffer (10-15%)
Not every new dish will be popular. Add 10-15% of your direct ingredient costs for ingredients you might not sell through. For exotic ingredients: 20-25% buffer.
Include startup costs (first 2 weeks)
Calculate your ingredient costs for the first 2 weeks and add 20% for extra waste during the learning phase. These are your one-time startup costs on top of the normal budget.
✨ Pro tip
Start with one new seasonal dish per month instead of a completely new menu. This way you learn the actual costs without big financial risks.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Can't I just add 20% to my normal procurement budget?
That's too imprecise. Seasonal fluctuations can be 50-80% for certain ingredients. You need a detailed calculation to avoid surprises.
How do I know if my expected sales figures are realistic?
Check your current best-selling dishes. A new dish rarely reaches more than 60-70% of your top performers in the first month. Be conservative in your estimates.
What if a seasonal dish becomes much more popular than expected?
Build a 'success scenario' into your calculation. If sales are 50% higher, can you quickly reorder? Or will you run into supply problems? Plan your upside risk too.
Should I include VAT in my procurement budget?
No, always work excluding VAT for your cost price calculations. Your procurement prices are usually excluding VAT, and you also calculate your food cost excluding VAT. Keep it simple and consistent.
How often should I adjust my seasonal budget?
Check every 3-4 weeks if your budget still holds up. Suppliers can adjust prices mid-term, and your sales figures become more realistic after a month. Adjust where needed.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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