You have a profit target for this year, but your current number of guests isn't enough. Many restaurant owners guess how many extra covers they need, but you can calculate it exactly. In this article, you'll learn step-by-step how to figure out how many extra guests you need to serve to reach your profit target.
Why guessing is expensive
Without calculation, many entrepreneurs think: "I need 20% more revenue, so I need 20% more guests." That's not right. Your fixed costs (rent, staff, insurance) stay the same. Every extra guest brings in more than the average guest so far.
This is called your contribution margin per cover. And it's crucial for your calculation.
The formula you need
To calculate extra covers you need these figures:
- Current annual revenue
- Desired extra profit (your target)
- Average bill value per cover
- Variable costs percentage (food cost + variable labor costs)
💡 Example calculation:
Restaurant De Smaak wants €25,000 extra profit this year:
- Average bill value: €32.50
- Food cost: 30%
- Variable labor costs: 15%
- Total variable costs: 45%
Contribution margin per cover: €32.50 × (100% - 45%) = €17.88
Extra covers needed: €25,000 ÷ €17.88 = 1,399 covers
Calculate step by step
The basic formula is:
Extra covers = Desired extra profit ÷ Contribution margin per cover
Where contribution margin per cover = Average bill value × (100% - Variable costs%)
Variable vs. fixed costs
Important distinction for this calculation:
- Variable costs: Increase with every extra guest (food, drinks, variable labor)
- Fixed costs: Stay the same (rent, fixed salaries, insurance, depreciation)
Your extra guests only need to cover variable costs. You're paying fixed costs anyway.
⚠️ Watch out:
If you need many extra guests, you might need to hire extra staff. Then your fixed costs go up and the calculation won't work anymore. First calculate at how many extra covers you'll need an extra chef or server.
From covers to practical targets
Once you know how many extra covers you need, translate this into concrete targets:
- Per day: Divide by the number of opening days per year
- Per month: Divide by 12 (average)
- Per service: Divide by number of services per week
💡 Practical example:
1,399 extra covers at 6 days per week, 50 weeks per year:
- Opening days per year: 300
- Extra covers per day: 1,399 ÷ 300 = 4.7
- Rounded: 5 extra guests per day
That's much more realistic than "20% more revenue"
Check your assumptions
This calculation only works if your assumptions are correct:
- Bill value stays the same: New guests order the same as current guests
- Variable costs stay percentage: No economies or diseconomies of scale
- Kitchen can handle it: No extra investments needed
- Dining room can handle it: Enough tables and chairs
💡 Reality check:
At Restaurant De Smaak (50 seats, 2 services per evening):
- Current occupancy: 70% = 70 covers/day
- 5 extra covers = 75 covers/day
- New occupancy: 75%
This is realistic without extra investments
Alternative routes to your profit target
More covers isn't the only way to more profit. Compare these options:
- Higher average bill value: Fewer extra guests needed
- Lower food cost: Higher contribution margin per guest
- More efficient purchasing: Lower variable costs
- Combination of all three
Sometimes it's easier to increase your average bill value by €2 than to get 5 extra guests per day.
How do you calculate extra covers for your profit target?
Gather your basic data
Write down your average bill value per cover from last year, your food cost percentage, and your variable labor costs (usually 10-20% of revenue). You'll find these figures in your POS system and annual accounts.
Calculate your contribution margin per cover
Subtract your total variable costs percentage from 100% and multiply by your average bill value. This is what every extra guest actually brings in after deducting direct costs.
Divide your profit target by the contribution margin
The result is the number of extra covers you need. Divide this by your number of opening days to see how many extra guests you need to serve per day.
✨ Pro tip
First check if it's realistic to get that many extra guests. Sometimes it's easier to increase your average bill value or lower your food cost.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I calculate with prices including or excluding VAT?
For this calculation it doesn't matter, as long as you're consistent. Your bill value and costs have the same VAT, so the variable costs percentage stays the same.
What if I don't have variable labor costs?
Then you calculate only with your food cost percentage. But watch out: with many more guests you might need extra staff, then labor costs become variable anyway.
How do I know if my kitchen can handle the extra covers?
Check your current occupancy rate during busy periods. If you're already at 90% during peak hours, you need more capacity first before this calculation works.
Can I use this for seasonal targets too?
Yes, but adjust your opening days. For a summer target of 3 months, calculate with about 90 opening days instead of 300 per year.
What if my variable costs percentage isn't correct?
Check your food cost from the last 3 months and add variable labor costs (temp staff, extra hours). Don't include fixed salaries, you pay those anyway.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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