📝 Scenarios & decision guides · ⏱️ 2 min read

What do you do if you want your sous chef to create scenarios based on numbers?

📝 KitchenNmbrs · updated 13 Mar 2026

Last month, a sous chef saved his restaurant €4,800 annually by calculating a simple pasta portion adjustment. Numbers transform cooks into business partners. Here's how you develop that analytical mindset in your kitchen team.

Why numerical scenarios matter

A sous chef who only follows recipes is just another pair of hands. But one who calculates possibilities? That's your future business partner. The magic happens when they start asking "what if" and can crunch the numbers themselves.

💡 Example scenario:

"What if our supplier raises the price of beef by 20%?"

  • Current beef purchase: €18/kg
  • New price: €21.60/kg
  • Difference per steak (250g): €0.90
  • At 40 steaks/week: €1,872 extra costs/year

Conclusion: Raise menu price or find different meat?

Start with simple 'what if' questions

Don't overwhelm them with complex scenarios right away. Build their confidence with straightforward calculations they can actually solve.

  • Price changes: "What if ingredient X becomes 15% more expensive?"
  • Portion changes: "What if we use 20 grams less meat per plate?"
  • Volume changes: "What if we get 30% more guests on Friday?"
  • Menu changes: "What if we remove this dish?"

Give him the right tools and data

You can't expect scenario planning without providing the raw materials. Most kitchen managers discover too late that their team was making blind decisions simply because they didn't have access to basic cost data.

⚠️ Note:

Numbers without context are meaningless. A food cost of 32% means nothing if they don't know your target is 28%.

Essential data your sous chef needs:

  • Purchase prices per ingredient
  • Food cost percentage per dish
  • Sales figures per dish (popularity)
  • Total weekly revenue and number of covers
  • Waste percentages

Have him present scenarios

Calculation is just step one. The real value comes from presenting findings and making recommendations. Make this a regular part of your weekly check-ins.

💡 Practical example:

Sous chef: "I've calculated what happens if we adjust our pasta carbonara:"

  • Current food cost: 34% (too high)
  • If we use 20g less pancetta: 29%
  • Savings per portion: €1.20
  • At 60 portions/week: €3,744 savings/year

"My proposal: test for 2 weeks with less pancetta and see if guests notice."

Reward numerical thinking

Behavior you acknowledge gets repeated. Show genuine interest in their calculations, even if they're not perfect yet.

  • Discuss his calculations seriously
  • Implement good suggestions
  • Give feedback on his calculations
  • Share results if the scenario was successful

Use digital tools for speed

Manual calculations slow everything down and introduce errors. Tools like KitchenNmbrs let your sous chef test scenarios quickly without getting lost in spreadsheets.

⚠️ Note:

A tool is only useful if your sous chef actually uses it. Train him in how to use it and check that he keeps using it.

How do you train scenario thinking? (step by step)

1

Start with one concrete scenario per week

Give your sous chef one 'what if' question to calculate each week. Start simple: what happens to food cost if ingredient X becomes 10% more expensive? Let him calculate it himself and draw conclusions.

2

Give access to all necessary numbers

Make sure your sous chef can see purchase prices, food cost percentages, and sales figures. Without data, he can't create scenarios. Also explain what normal percentages are (food cost under 35%, etc.).

3

Have him present scenarios in your meeting

Make it part of your weekly discussion. Ask: what have you calculated? What do you propose? Why? Discuss his calculations seriously and implement good suggestions.

✨ Pro tip

Have your sous chef calculate three different supplier scenarios every 6 weeks - current supplier, backup option, and premium alternative. This builds their confidence with real-world comparisons they can actually implement.

Calculate this yourself?

In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.

Try KitchenNmbrs free →

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Frequently asked questions

What if my sous chef isn't good with numbers?

Start very simple with one calculation per week. Use a calculator or app so he doesn't have to calculate manually. Focus first on understanding the logic, the technique comes later.

Which scenarios are most important to practice?

Start with price changes of your main ingredients and portion adjustments. These are the scenarios that happen most often and have the biggest impact on your profitability.

What if his calculations are wrong?

That's part of the learning process. Check his work, explain where it went wrong, and have him do it again. Better a mistake in practice than an expensive error in reality.

Should I give him access to all financial figures?

He needs purchase prices, food cost percentages, and sales figures to create scenarios. You don't need to share your complete P&L, but do share the operational figures relevant to the kitchen.

ℹ️ This article was prepared based on official sources and professional expertise. While we strive for current and accurate information, the content may differ from the most recent regulations. Always consult the official authorities for binding standards.

📚 Sources consulted

Food Standards Agency (FSA) https://www.food.gov.uk

The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.

JS

Written by

Jeffrey Smit

Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs

Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.

🏆 8 years kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group Rotterdam
Expertise: food cost management HACCP kitchen management restaurant operations food safety compliance

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