Picture this: your restaurant hit €92,000 last quarter, up from €85,000 the quarter before. Sounds promising, right? But without calculating the actual percentage growth and comparing it properly, you're missing the real story behind those numbers.
Why quarterly growth matters more than absolute revenue
You did €85,000 in revenue last quarter. This quarter €92,000. Good news? Maybe. But without context, this tells you little.
Percentage growth reveals:
- If you're performing better than last year
- If your growth is accelerating or slowing down
- How you're performing compared to the market
- If your investments are working
💡 Example:
Restaurant The Golden Spoon:
- Q1 2024: €78,000 revenue
- Q1 2025: €92,000 revenue
- Growth: (€92,000 - €78,000) / €78,000 × 100 = 17.9%
That's excellent growth for a restaurant.
The formula for quarterly growth
The basic formula is straightforward, but there are different variations that each provide their own insight.
Basic quarterly growth (year-over-year):
Growth % = ((Revenue this quarter - Revenue same quarter last year) / Revenue same quarter last year) × 100
This compares Q1 2025 with Q1 2024, Q2 2025 with Q2 2024, and so on. This filters out seasonal effects.
⚠️ Note:
Always compare the same quarter from different years. Q4 is always higher due to holidays, Q1 often lower after the January dip. Comparing quarter-over-quarter (Q2 vs Q1) gives a distorted picture due to seasons.
Different growth metrics you can calculate
There are multiple ways to measure growth. Each provides different insights:
1. Year-over-year quarterly growth
Compares Q1 2025 with Q1 2024. Most reliable metric for long-term trends.
2. Quarter-over-quarter growth
Compares Q2 with Q1 of the same year. Shows short-term momentum, but seasons affect it.
3. Rolling 4-quarter average
Takes the last 4 quarters and compares with the 4 quarters before that. Smooths out seasonal fluctuations.
💡 Example rolling average:
Last 4 quarters (Q2 2024 through Q1 2025): €340,000
Previous 4 quarters (Q2 2023 through Q1 2024): €310,000
Growth: (€340,000 - €310,000) / €310,000 × 100 = 9.7%
Benchmarks: what is good growth?
Growth is relative, but here are common benchmarks for restaurants from analyzing actual purchasing data across different restaurant types:
- 0-5% year-over-year: Stable, keeps up with inflation
- 5-10%: Healthy growth, better than market average
- 10-15%: Strong growth, often due to expansion or concept improvement
- 15%+: Exceptional growth, often temporary
- Negative: Decline, action needed
Note: growth of 20%+ is often not sustainable. Your kitchen, staff, and systems need time to grow with you.
Using growth as a management tool
It's not just about calculating, but about what you do with it. Use growth as a compass for decisions:
With strong growth (10%+):
- Check if your operations are growing with it (quality, service)
- Invest in staff and systems
- Prepare for the next growth phase
With weak growth (0-5%):
- Analyze causes: market, concept, competition?
- Test new initiatives (menu, marketing, service)
- Focus on customer satisfaction and retention
With decline (negative):
- Urgent analysis: what has changed?
- Check external factors (economy, roadworks)
- Possible concept adjustment needed
💡 Real-world example:
Bistro The Square saw 15% growth in Q3 2024. Instead of sitting back satisfied, they invested in an extra chef. Q4 growth: 18%. Q1 2025: 12% (still strong).
By investing proactively during growth, they maintained quality and kept growing.
Combining growth with other KPIs
Revenue growth alone doesn't tell the whole story. Combine it with:
Number of covers: Is growth from more guests or higher check average?
Average check value: Is this increasing along with revenue growth?
Food cost %: Does profitability stay on track during growth?
Labor cost %: Is efficiency growing with it?
⚠️ Note:
Revenue growth at the expense of profit margin is not real growth. A restaurant that does 20% more revenue but 5% less profit isn't growing - it's shrinking.
Tracking growth KPIs digitally
Manually calculating growth takes time and is error-prone. Many restaurant owners use a system to automatically generate overviews of:
- Quarterly revenue and growth percentages
- Comparison with previous periods
- Trends in average check value
- Food cost development per period
This way you immediately see if your growth is healthy or if adjustments are needed.
How do you calculate quarterly growth step by step?
Gather quarterly revenue figures
Pull total revenue per quarter from your POS system for at least 2 years. Note: always use revenue excluding VAT for consistent comparisons. Record Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 for each year separately.
Calculate year-over-year growth per quarter
Use the formula: (Revenue this quarter - Revenue same quarter last year) / Revenue same quarter last year × 100. So compare Q1 2025 with Q1 2024, not with Q4 2024.
Analyze trends and patterns
Look at whether growth is consistent or fluctuates per quarter. Strong growth in Q4 (holidays) is normal, but if Q1-Q3 decline there's a problem. Look for external causes when there are sudden changes.
✨ Pro tip
Track your quarterly growth alongside your food cost percentage for the past 6 months - if revenue grows 12% but food costs jump from 28% to 34%, you're actually losing profitability. Real growth maintains or improves your margins.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I use revenue including or excluding VAT?
Always use revenue excluding VAT for growth calculations. This gives a clear picture without VAT rate changes. Your POS system can show both - consistently choose excluding VAT.
What if I've only been open for 1 year?
Then you can't yet do year-over-year comparisons. Focus on quarter-over-quarter growth, but account for seasonal effects. After 15 months you can make your first real year-over-year comparison.
Is 5% growth per quarter good or bad?
5% year-over-year growth is healthy for an established restaurant. But 5% per quarter would amount to 20%+ per year - that's exceptionally strong but often not sustainable without additional investments.
How do I handle seasonal fluctuations?
Always compare the same quarter from different years. Q4 is always higher due to holidays, Q1 often lower. For a more complete picture, you can also use the rolling 4-quarter average.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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